Mining Ban in China May Have Unexpected Impact on Bitcoin.

Mining Ban in China May Have Unexpected Impact on Bitcoin.

This time, I would like to talk about trends in China, which has been booming in the market recently. This time, it’s like painting a rumor on a rumor.

Please note that we have not confirmed the facts. (The reason for writing is to prepare for it because the market moves even with rumor). There was a tweet saying that the information on mining prohibition is not true (I forgot the source w), but in fact, it seems that there is a movement to withdraw locally.

Details are described in the following articles.

Minor starts selling ASIC and GPU due to Chinese Bitcoin regulation.

According to the story I heard at the rumor level, some stories came from the government when I was doing a mining farm of a certain scale. Local miners are starting to export mining machines to other countries if they continue.

It is said that mining will not be possible in China because miners cannot be cashed due to the suspension of the Chinese exchange, but considering the original reprint (rumor level) and other circumstances, the pressure to move assets overseas is greater and minor. It is said that the buyer demand for BTC, which is enough to be converted into cash to pay maintenance costs such as electricity bills, is sufficiently domestic.

Even if the exchange is closed, there are sites where users can trade bilaterally, so there is a risk, but you can continue to cash in. In order to forcibly prohibit mining, it is necessary to regulate access to the Bitcoin network by using something called the Golden Shield (Great Firewall). I think there are various things that can be sneaked by VPN etc., but I think that it will be difficult to mine big in any case.

If it is regulated by the Golden Shield, the chain in China and the chain in the world will be split, and when they are connected somewhere, the shorter chain will be erased and Bitcoin will disappear. .. .. I don’t think there is any scenario.

(Bitcoin has a rule that small chains are split every day, but the longer one is positive. The inferior chain disappears.)About the market price what will happen to the market price if mining is really regulated in China as mentioned above? Of course, it’s negative news for Bitcoin, so it will go down. In addition, the loss of all of China’s hash power can result in significant remittance delays before Diff adjustments are made.

If that happens, the person in the wallet will not be able to sell it and will just be watching the crash. I won’t talk about how much it goes down and rebounds here, but you have to be prepared for a short-term crash.

What happens to mine bitcoin mining has the potential to dig a lot because it lowers DIff, but at the same time it loses value, so the number of coins increases, but it may be sold. So Bitcoin miners will probably start digging for Bitcoin cash. Bitcoin Cash includes block time adjustment in DIff’s automatic adjustment function.

Since the block time of Bitcoin does not change, it takes time to change DIff. The cache is adjusted so that even minors with shorter block times can turn. Since Bitcoin is a terrible delay, the value of Bitcoin Cash will increase if you try to use the cash, and the profit margin will be better if the miner also digs the cash, so we will move to the cash side.

Then, there will be no Bitcoin miners, and the time until the block time when the Diff change is made will be longer. I think Diff will come back someday, but I don’t know what will happen after that. There is a good chance that Ether will become the key currency during such an emergency.

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